The Labour party are infamously good at losing elections. Indeed, the party has failed to win a single election in my lifetime so far, despite having the chance to do so on four occasions. Thus, when Labour go into an election year as clear favourites, it feels as though something very special and rare is happening in the country. 2024 is one such year, as the party continues to profit from a spectacular implosion by the Conservatives in 2022 and the calls for a fresh start begin to increase in every corner of Britain.
However, as expected, the Labour leadership have worked extremely hard to guard against complacency from all ranks of the party. After all, Labour history is far too stained with shock defeats – 1992 famously comes into mind – for the party to ever feel comfortable on any poll lead despite how large it may be. With this in mind, as the party gears up its members to ‘Win ’24,’ I thought it would be both useful and intriguing to evaluate the party’s chances in the main battlegrounds of the upcoming election, before making a conclusion of Labour’s chances with the country as a whole.
Labour and the Red Wall
It was the ‘Red Wall’ seats which so dramatically swung the last election to the Tories, as traditional Labour heartlands fell in their droves to the blue wave. A Labour victory depends heavily on the ability to regain the trust of these voters, and with Brexit out of the way, such a task does look more simple. However, with resentment at being abandoned by their party still alive, it is still interesting to ask if Labour have done enough to regain the trust of these voters.
Labour’s main mission has to be showing these left behind communities that a Labour government would empower them, allowing them to revive their towns and bridge the gap between them and London. This can be done through promises of both increased spending in these areas and increased devolution to put power into the hands of local authorities more closely linked with the people they represent. Some also argue that the party must be tough on immigration, though I fear this may be counter productive as it risks the support of another important voter group I will talk about later.
The people of the North of England voted for the Conservatives because they wanted radical change, and are now furious as this change has not materialised. If Labour are to regain the trust of these voters, they only need to look at why they lost them, because the voters felt voiceless and left behind. Thus the most crucial way to get them back is to promise to give these people a voice and the power they desire make their beloved communities flourish and prosper.
Labour and Scotland
In 2019, as the SNP renewed their electoral dominance, the idea of a Labour return in Scotland seemed to be nothing more than a pipe dream, but how politics changes. The self-destruction of the Scottish nationalist alongside the impressive leadership of the underrated Anas Sarwar of Scottish Labour has given Starmer a huge opportunity to make up ground in Scotland. Again, Labour is set with the task of retaking former heartlands, but unlike the voters in northern England, the priorities and politics of Scots are much more left wing on social as well as economic issues and thus pose a very different challenge to Labour.
Scotland does not seem to have warmed to Starmer after the leader moved the party more to the right, despite the party’s gains in the polls. According to the latest figures from YouGov, 41% of Scottish respondents thought the Labour leader was doing badly in his job, while an equal number thought he was doing well. Though better than his numbers elsewhere, it still points to the idea that Starmer has room for improvement in Scotland. No doubt this means being more left wing and more distinct from the Conservative party, considering how left wing the average Scot is. This means trying to avoid U-turns on flagship left-wing policies from now on, a fact the party seems to be waking up to after Starmer refused to row back on the party’s pledge to invest £28 billion into green investment in early January. Furthermore, a commitment to increased devolution, such as offering more financial powers, would also go a long way.
Labour cannot just rely on Scottish anger towards both the SNP and the Tories if they are to win back Scottish votes. Instead, the party will need to both make up for neglecting Scotland in its past offer and bold vision for the country’s future. It would seem they have a great chance to do both of these if they can grasp the moment.
Labour and the Youth
In 2017 it was the youth vote surge for Labour that sure the parties vote share rise by nearly 10 percentage points. Again, to secure its first majority in 19 years Labour will need at least the majority of these young people to vote for them again. However, after a bitter battle to claw Labour to the centre, the enthusiasm for the party among the youth has noticeably dimmed. So what can the party do to take some of this support back?
A reassurance that the party would bring real, tangible change form the Conservatives is a key factor. This means promoting the more radical part of the party’s programme, such as its continued commitment to renationalising the railways. But it also means the party must refuse take a turn to the right on social issues, such as immigration, or else risk the anger of even more of its previously loyal youth voter base.
Labour cannot afford for these voters to stay at home if it wants a majority. It can hope that many young people will tactically vote for the party, but it also needs a reason for people to vote for their party, instead of just collecting votes against the Conservatives.
Conclusion
In line with most political commentators, I am quite confident that this year will see the election of a Labour government. However, it is still clear that the party needs to inspire hope and enthusiasm in its voters if its support will survive into the election day. It's one thing having your main opponent lose voters, as the Conservatives have most spectacularly done, but to win an election you also need to gain voters yourself. One thing Labour cannot risk is allowing apathy to spread among the electorate, causing a voter turnout that could cost the party a majority.